Is the convergence of multiple financial storms going to produce an economic crisis?
The modern Imperial system has been undergoing a severe buffeting: Ukraine and Gaza have shown the limits of its military power; on the economic front Treasury Bonds haven’t sold, China and other countries continue to de-dollarise, and Saudi Arabia, the lynchpin of the petrodollar system which allows the USD to be the top dog of currencies, is sidling off to BRICS.
Empires take decades to collapse, so there is not going to be a Mad Max scenario around the corner. However 2024 is shaping up to put a serious strain on the primacy of the USA. Internally there will be a presidential election in November: will a senile Biden resist Trump or will some wildcard candidate emerge? Both factions seem irredeemably opposed to each other and violence may ensue. The southern border continues to emit a horde of humanity from unstable countries. Many feel that the US political system is irredeemably corrupt, and all the players are tarnished, as well as incompetent.
Externally, many countries are aligning to the “Majority World” bloc led by Russia and China. Some are hedging their bets with a foot in both camps but recent events show the direction of travel. With the USA being substantially deindustrialised, as shown by its inability to provide Ukraine with sufficient artillery ammunition, it is clearly no longer the military giant it pretended to be. Where did all those trillions of dollars paid to the Military-Industrial Complex go? Not into weapons, it seems.
The Belt-and-Road Initiative, BRICs, the SCO, and many other organisations are edging out the old, West-dominated acronyms: UN, WTO, ICC. The “West” (which includes South Korea and Japan) no longer has primacy. The countries representing 85% of the world’s population accuse these organisations of colonialism and exploitation. They have lost respect and the next stage is losing power.
How this will play out is hard to forecast, economic crisis, more military actions, an oil shock? All kinds of events could destabilise an already unstable situation. What is likely is that the poorer people, in both the privileged billion or the developing world, will suffer.